Primary Purposes
The primary purposes of prediction are to:
• Evaluate whether or not a particular design concept is likely to meet a specified reliability requirement under defined conditions.
• Compare alternative design solutions.
• Provide inputs to related project activities, such as:
◦ Design evaluation.
◦ Trade-off studies.
◦ Life cycle costs.
◦ Spares provisioning.
◦ Logistic and maintenance support studies.
• Assist in the identification and elimination of any potential reliability problems by imposing a systematic discipline that ensures all reliability aspects of a design are examined.
• Measure progress towards achieving the specified reliability requirements.
The prediction process is a continuing activity throughout a project, with the prediction being regularly updated as more design, test and evaluation data become available. The accuracy of any prediction depends largely upon the availability of detailed design and operating data. This is seldom available during the early stages of a project.
However, the requirement for prediction must be used to force detailed information to be made available as early as possible, particularly in critical areas, so that a more thorough and realistic pre-design assessment can be produced. Clearly, therefore, prediction must be a part of the design process and not simply a parallel activity.