Risk Analysis
Risk analysis is a forecast of the number of failures expected to occur in a specified time period so that priorities can be set and resources for corrective action allocated. Also known as expected quality forecasting, risk analysis is extremely useful for determining the purchasing policy for spare parts and for identifying batch problems. In addition to life data, risk analysis requires:
• Age of the components in service.
• Usage rate per unit per a specified time period.
• Introduction rate of new units subject to the failure mode.
• Indication as to whether failed parts are replaced with zero time parts.
Keeping in mind that the failure forecast is dependent on the quantity and quality of the data, and that uncertainty increases as the time span for the forecast increases, the following can be predicted:
• Failures expected at the current time.
• Failures expected in the future when failed units are replaced.
• Failures expected in the future when failed units are not replaced.