Development Stages
During the development stages, there are two main types of reliability prediction activity:
• The continual updating of theoretical predictions as design changes are introduced due to shortcomings revealed by development testing and by early reliability predictions themselves.
• Predictions based on the practical results from any reliability development testing, demonstration testing, etc.. Often a reliability growth model is used, which enables future reliability achievement to be predicted based on cumulative test results.
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It is important to note that a theoretical prediction will generally reflect the reliability of “mature” equipment (i.e., after some years in service). A prediction based on a reliability growth model, however, reflects the number of design shortcomings still present in the design of the build standard under test or in early service life.
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